The Journal of Turkish Weekly
Monday, 28 March 2011
ELNUR ASLANOV
Foreign policy is a strategic resource serving to develop the most fertile international environment for a country’s development. In general, when this resource is not being used to that end, the use of national resources may be dictated from abroad, at the behest of various other interests, with undesirable results. There is international recognition of the success of Azerbaijan’s policy in achieving positive development. As we look today at the newly-developed characteristics of our foreign policy, directing all resources towards a resolution of the national Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh problem, the desired outcome must be held firmly at the centre of attention. Only in this way will a foundation be laid for future years.
Issues that a country has solved in all historical periods, at the same time, stipulate the dynamics of priorities in foreign policy. In its first years of independence Azerbaijan stepped into modern history with the status of a sovereign state in international relations. In the next phase our country, which, for historical reasons had not been involved as a decisive actor for some time, returned to the geopolitical stage as a regional leader in the system of international relations. These processes were accompanied by aggression and invasions, which are the toughest test for any country. For 23 years now, Azerbaijan has constantly had to summon all its resources to provide for the integrity of its territory and to move on to the next stage of development, assigning priority importance to matters concerning economic well-being. The experience of highly-developed countries demonstrates that this is a proven path.
The large-scale reform work carried out in Azerbaijan, which has progressed to a new level of development, has continued in parallel with the processes of renovation and changing the foreign identity vectors of our country. In 2008, President Ilham Aliyev set the further priority for foreign policy to attain the level of highly-developed countries. The completion of the economic transition period and establishment of a powerful internal base creates trust in foreign policy and provides for national interests. The realization of such aims as a “strong state and high standard of living” initiated by the president implies a new basis for the development of Azerbaijan’s foreign and domestic policies. Following the president’s proposal to “transform black gold into intellectual gold”, the existing material resources and base are converted into intellectual capital and resources of ideas and innovation.
In the modern world the attainment of technological development is not within the means of any one country. That is why the political resources of Azerbaijan are being mobilised to modernize the country to the level of those highly-developed states. Analogous to military-political alliances, the establishment of technological-innovation alliances in the modern world is a prime issue for Azerbaijan. In this respect Azerbaijan has great internal resources: its image as a leader in economic development, a perfect investment environment, foreign investments and the potential of sectors other than oil.
The Nagorno Karabakh Issue: A Threat to Regional Safety
Azerbaijan, a supporter of peaceful relations with all countries, adheres to this policy in a situation of war and the violation of its territorial integrity. In comparison with other countries, every success here is gained in conditions which are two or three times more complicated; this makes each success is two or three times more valuable. In both legal and political contexts, the global community accepts that a resolution of the Armenia-Azerbaijan, Nagorno Karabakh conflict based on the integrity of Azerbaijan’s territory is the only way forward. The Armenian leadership, which came to power on the back of the invasion of Azerbaijan’s lands, sees the continuation of the conflict and preservation of the status-quo as its means of staying in government. And the situation that country is in as a result of the criminal policy of the Armenian leadership, which considers a resolution of the conflict the greatest threat to its position, makes progress impossible under any conditions.
Azerbaijan’s expansion of its military budget to more than 3 billion dollars in the current impasse is completely understandable and the country constantly and seriously considers alternative paths to peace. This is Azerbaijan’s natural right and no power can deny it. Azerbaijan adopted its military doctrine for the first time in 2010. This is a document determining the conceptual base of the military security system necessary to protect the country against foreign and domestic (military or other) threats, as part of the strategy to maintain the national security of Azerbaijan; it is a measure of the purposefulness of policy in this direction. If those powers truly interested in a resolution of the conflict are interested more in the process than in the results, Azerbaijan is no longer prepared to accept this. The only indication that the negotiations are not just pretence will be for the invader to draw back from its disrespectful attitude towards the international community and for measures to be taken to force the invader to leave the lands of Azerbaijan. A process with no result goes against Azerbaijan’s pragmatic policy. Because the word ‘pragma’ means deed, accomplishment. Unfortunately, the world community does not understand that the status-quo cannot last forever.
At the same time, the past years have demonstrated that time is working in Azerbaijan’s favour. But Armenia has attached the new image of a declining and futureless country to its former name – invader. Naturally, Azerbaijan does not want a negative scenario and does not consider an alternative solution of the conflict to be incidental. On the other hand, there is no more dangerous scenario than for the situation to remain as it is now for Azerbaijan, the region and the world. Every day’s delay in reaching a solution to the conflict must be considered a big loss. Of course, there are global powers that carry specific responsibility for maintaining security in the world; they state this continuously and this is exactly why Azerbaijan expects more decisiveness from those countries on issues connected with solving conflict in the region. For the situation to remain stalled or to alter against our national interests may threaten Azerbaijan’s trust in the international community and the negotiators and, in the worst case, it may increase tension in the region.
Developments can occur very quickly in international relations. We cannot say for sure what world we will inhabit in the near future or what new areas of conflict may arise. The unimaginable speed of such processes also influences political decisions. This is why decisions to resolve long-standing conflicts must be taken first of all, so that future generations do not inherit them as a burden.
The main point is that the opposite side has very little time to advance their position, even to take actual steps, and they must use this time most wisely. The status-quo page in the history of the conflict should already have been turned. No loud statements, but the great economic projects being realized say everything about the future of Azerbaijan. All these projects carry strategic international importance and are calculated to limit any initiatives by Armenia. The scope of Armenia’s options is narrowing. For now, Azerbaijan is prepared to make some changes in configuration for the sake of a fair solution to the conflict. If hopes of solving the conflict peacefully are not realised, then the other side will be the one to regret it.
Geo-politics Become Geo-economy
Bringing out our national wealth – being energy suppliers to the world market is one of the priorities of Azerbaijan’s policy. Continuing the oil strategy in Azerbaijan, developed from the new branching principle since 1994, has brought real results and our country has gained a specific ‘geo-political immunity’. Not every country with energy resources has been able to do this. Two main directions are important for our country on this issue: first, it is intended to improve and to increase the branches of the transportation infrastructure; second, the country’s geo-political position creates an objective opportunity for Azerbaijan to lead these processes. Within the framework of economic diplomacy, the energy policy supports the creation of the maximum foreign and domestic conditions which serve Azerbaijan’s national interests. Azerbaijan is already a power influencing the formation of a new configuration in the balance of regional powers. Discovery of the Umid gas deposit has increased Azerbaijan’s importance in the world’s gas market, and has given it the basis to pursue its energy policy more actively and confidently.
Over the last few years the South Caucasus has become the locus for severe political confrontation over the control of the political-economic agenda, resources, transportation-energy routes and the resolution of the current conflict in the region. Azerbaijan responds calmly to the dangers of the regional situation and the manoeuvres to use points of conflict between countries in the competition of military-political and economic-energy interests. Obstacles in the way of our energy policy targeted at our national interests and attempts to form a geo-political configuration ‘the way everybody wants’ are also numerous.
Azerbaijan has become one of the main actors in maintaining European energy security. Agreements have been signed to increase the amount of gas Russia will purchase from Azerbaijan from 2011-2012. Further, Azerbaijan, the key actor in the region, is a strategic transit zone for Central Asia. Maintaining peace in the region is a very important issue from this point of view. Azerbaijan, which has become the heavyweight in the region with its political and economic potential, is a particularly active initiator in preparing the conceptual basis for a long-lasting cycle of global energy resources and energy security policy.
Towards Models for a Multi-polar World
The activation of initiatives to form a multi-polar system and navigate current world models towards a new paradigm based on understanding and cooperation is underway in international relations. But the greatest obstacles to optimism are the policies of those countries which do not understand the changes. There are those who are afraid to advance steadily and who do not want to do so.
Most countries pursue their foreign policy interests more sensitively in their local environment. National interests in the near abroad do not arise from emotional or conjectural visions, but are limited to objective historical-political, geographical, economic, cultural and other neighbourhood criteria. Relations with its neighbours have always been important for Azerbaijan. In its turn, Azerbaijan also has the right to receive the sincerity it has always demonstrated towards its friends and neighbours. International relations and close cooperation are based on equal, sincere and open relations. This element is the main principle behind the newly developing multi-polar world models.
The ‘Mental Power’ Model
No country which wants to take a well-deserved place in the world can progress without leaning on democratic values. Having chosen this direction, Azerbaijan has spent much time and effort in achieving it. And the path to universal democratic values passes through the national, historical-political space. The evolution of democracy is possible in conditions of peace and stability. However, in the modern world the relations between democracy and security, independence and security, that is, analysing them as if they were entirely disparate phenomena, has become the fashion. And this is, certainly, a paradoxical situation.
The Space of Dialogue and Cooperation
Azerbaijan is trying to create a space for mutual dialogue and cooperation in the region and the world. The geography of our situation and our history have conditioned the multi-national and multi-confessional development of our country. In practice, Azerbaijan has now become a strictly necessary tribunal for dialogue between East and West; an intensification of this dialogue must be of interest to all sides. In its foreign policy, Azerbaijan continues to realize its pragmatic, balanced and diverse policy between the East and the West.
This balanced foreign policy is an approach indicating that all foreign policy directions are equally important to Azerbaijan, at the same time it gives particular importance to priority issues. Diversity is not the desire of any one party, but is the objective logical outcome of the development of the geographical position of an independent country, the new geo-politics – the reality of the South Caucasus and an adequate response to international demands. It is no secret that international players have a direct or circuitous effect on the locations of modern countries. The question lies in to what degree, what channels and to what level this influence advances. If we remember the analogy comparing international policy space with a chess board (Z.Brzezinski), an independent country in the multi-polar world is in the position of someone playing with more than 100 countries at the same time.
The Most Justifiable Way
Historical experience gained becomes richer with flexibility, constructiveness, readiness to compromise and constant openness to new approaches, initiatives and change. This policy has given Azerbaijan the opportunity to defend its national interests with more confidence and not to allow untenable conditions. Having determined its identity in foreign policy, Azerbaijan has exponentially expanded its opportunities to take independent political decisions as a self sufficient country, but which is not limited, like some countries, to only the West or the East, or to a search for a ‘big brother’.
Sometimes analysts call this a paradoxical policy. They suggest clarifying focus by dividing partners into friends or enemies, considering this to be the way to increase importance in the geo-policy of the region. Azerbaijan does not accept such a focus. For Azerbaijan, which approaches these processes in consideration of its national interests and of global directions in the development of international relations, its current path is the most justifiable.
The support of its people, internal strength and pragmatism makes Azerbaijan’s policy a strong one. The true multi-polar policy is not simply the mechanical sum of its many actors, it is the common effort towards the solution of conflicts and problems, simultaneous responsibility and making decisions together.
Pragmatism demands political will and the ability to make solid decisions. Azerbaijan does not compromise on anything that concerns its national interests. Azerbaijan, which leads with the principle of branching in economy and policy, does not participate in projects or programmes whose success is not certain and it proposes its own positive alternatives. If partners are not ready for these alternatives, this is not the fault of Azerbaijan. We do not interfere in the interests of any country, we do not create problems, but there are countries which have created, or are planning to create, problems for Azerbaijan. There are unjust claims against Azerbaijan, but we have fair expectations.
The practical and flexible way of thinking, under the supervision of President Ilham Aliyev, which has become a characteristic of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy over recent years, has attracted the attention of experts. Sometimes they say that Azerbaijan changes its foreign policy performance very rapidly. Those who say this are probably the ones who cannot take in the speed at which political reality is changing around us. Azerbaijan is far from idealizing reality. We understand very well that we are between the claws of the geo-political interests of global powers. And this reality forces us to build our policy flexibly.
This means that Azerbaijan is occupied with foreign policy, but not with the stupid propaganda of chauvinist ideas dictated by the previous political mentality.
The new line of foreign policy has proudly charted the global economic crisis and this demonstrates its quality, that this is a seriously planned and truly independent line. An independent foreign policy is Azerbaijan’s right, which it has maintained through great difficulties, and Azerbaijan doesn’t owe anyone for it. The biggest guarantee of providing for the integrity of Azerbaijan’s lands are both the results of the first decade of this century and the inspiration created by the historical achievement of the forthcoming 20th anniversary of its independent foreign policy.
Internal strength and pragmatism
The political results of these years clearly show once more that both time and the political capital acquired – positions, ideas, resources and cadres - service solutions of nationwide problems and the strengthening of the state.
The foreign policy of Azerbaijan is now stronger than ever. During his visit to Russia, America’s President Obama gave this valuation of the capacity of a country to have an independent foreign policy: “Sovereignty must be the touchstone of world order. All countries must have the right to safe borders and to pursue their own foreign policy. Any system which denies these rights ends in anarchy. The USA is interested in policy directed towards protecting sovereignty, as well as supporting democracy.”
When the aims of foreign policy do not match the demands of the new era, statehood fails. The policy of Armenia is a clear example. That country’s foreign policy has not formed an identity, because it is not independent. This situation promises new disasters and a dark future for the Armenian people who are dependent on the political ‘tastes’ of one man, afraid of losing his seat if the conflict is resolved.
It is normal that in politics there can be many ideas about one issue. But on just one issue there can be no doubt: Azerbaijan has no pretensions to any country and it does not interfere with anyone’s internal affairs. It is a reliable partner and has the right to expect the same reliability from others. Azerbaijan, which has earned its place in the international political space, has already proven to be the most constant defender of integration processes with both neighbours and the world community. This means that Azerbaijan’s balanced and diverse foreign policy has already made the qualitative step up into the new era. The process of transforming its economic potential into political weight by well-planned policy continues unabated.
Dr. Elnur Aslanov is the Head of the Political Analysis and Information Department in the Presidential Administration of Azerbaijan Republic.
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