Hurriyet Daily News

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

BARÇIN YİNANÇ

The U.S. policy of encouraging Turkish-Armenian reconciliation at the cost of alienating Azerbaijan is a mistake, according to an energy expert who focuses on the region.

Washington is now trying to improve its strained relations with Baku following the suspension of the ratification process of protocols to normalize Turkish-Armenian relations, Vladimir Socor, a senior analyst at the U.S. Jamestown Foundation, said Tuesday during a visit to Istanbul.

The recent visit by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates to Baku and the upcoming visit of U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Azerbaijani capital are signs of this effort, Socor told the Hürriyet Daily News & Economic Review.

Gates handed U.S. President Barack Obama’s letter to Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev, which emphasized the importance of Azerbaijan as a U.S. ally, said Socor, who added that this new approach was motivated by short-term interests rather than a long term outlook.

“The U.S. needs Azerbaijan to transport its military supplies to Afghanistan. [They] started talks with Russia as well. But Russia imposes several conditions whereas it is much easier with Azerbaijan and Georgia,” said Socor.

Yet in case of a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, Washington’s interest in Baku might diminish, according to Socor.

“Azerbaijan wants the U.S. to look at Azerbaijan from the prism of Azerbaijan, not from the prism of Afghanistan,” said Socor. This might be one of the messages that will be given to Clinton when she comes to Baku, Socor said, adding the Caspian state will also try to stress that it should not be taken for granted.

“The U.S. made the mistake of taking Azerbaijan for granted. It has not fulfilled its part of the strategic partnership with Baku,” said Socor, adding that Aliyev was invited only once to Washington after he became president in 2003 and that Clinton will be the first U.S. Secretary of State to visit Baku since James Baker’s visit in 1992.

The latest mistake of the U.S. with Azerbaijan was to push Turkey to open its borders with Armenia at the expense of angering Baku, said Socor.

“This policy had nothing to do with conflict prevention. It was guided by domestic concerns,” he said, implying the presence of Armenian lobbyists in the U.S.

Breaking the linkage between opening the border between Armenia and Turkey, which was closed due to the Armenian-Azerbaijani war over Nagorno-Karabakh, and a solution to the Karabakh problem eliminates all incentives for Armenia to withdraw from occupied Azerbaijani territories, Socor said.

When asked why keeping the border closed had not led to Armenian withdrawal, Socor said the current circumstances were different than the past.

“The balance of power is changing in favor of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has been getting militarily stronger since 2006 when oil money started to flow in, while Armenia stagnated in semi-isolation and poverty. Azerbaijan is becoming richer and richer. Its whole military budget is larger than the Armenian state budget. Azerbaijan is becoming capable of solving the problem by force, and it has started saying so,” said Socor, adding that these circumstances might push Yerevan to consider withdrawing from the regions it occupies.

Socor believes Azerbaijan is important for the United States for energy security. It has been U.S. policy to avoid over-dependence of Europe to Russia, said Socor, adding that Central Asian gas is crucial to reducing dependence on Russian energy resources and that Azerbaijan, together with Georgia, is the main export route to Europe.

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